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大和:新型肺炎影響零售餐飲業 惟看好安踏(2020.HK)等體育用品股
格隆匯 01-31 16:55

大和總研發表研究報告指,在武漢肺炎疫情受控前,消費者情緒仍然疲弱,病毒的進一步傳播可能會令市場情緒惡化,零售和餐飲業或會受到直接影響。該行認為,股價疲弱為運動服裝品牌提供了吸引的買入機會,當中看好安踏體育(2020.HK)及滔搏(6110.HK),兩者均予“買入”評級。

大和指,2003年非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情期間的零售額增長仍為正數,增速降至4.3%。在中國首次向世界衞生組織通報疫情,以及世衞發佈全球預警後,零售業出現強勁的反彈,增速回升至8.3%。

大和續指,武漢肺炎疫情還處於初期,SARS的情況只可作參考,因為在過去的17年中,中國經濟規模大幅增長,並且經濟已經從製造業轉以消費驅動。當年SARS爆發,對股價的負面影響是短暫的,只有約2-4個月,但認為政府鼓勵公民留在家中,避免人羣聚集和公眾聚會的措施,將給消費者情緒造成壓力,並對人流量產生負面影響。

大和認為,餐飲業和直接零售業務模式較高的公司將首先受到影響,短期內預計對餐飲業的負面影響更大,如海底撈(6862.HK)及呷哺呷哺(0520.HK),而批發業務模式佔主導的公司則可能會受到連鎖反應的影響,具體取決於疾控速度。長遠來看,該行相信武漢疫情將提高消費者對健康生活的認識,這對於運動裝品牌來説或是個好兆頭。

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