高盛:維持金沙(1928.HK)目標價53.2港元 評級“買入”
高盛發表研究報告指,金沙中國(1928.HK)
2019年第四季業績與該行和市場預期基本相符,物業息税折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)按季增長7%至8.11億美元,意味着利潤率按季增長0.4個百分點至36.2%,主因期內貴賓廳贏率按季提升逾0.6個百分點至3.64%,以及中場賭收持續跑贏同業所帶動。期內非博彩收入持續健康增長,受第四季的季節性零售租金表現強勁推動,按季增長5%;零售額按年增長11%。經贏率調整後,集團EBITDA錄7.81億美元,按季增長3%,優於同業表現。
該行認為,金沙於第四季重奪博彩總收入市場份額,按季提升1.4個百分回點至24.7%,估計以EBITDA計其市場份額進一步增長1.3個百分點至34.7%。武漢肺炎疫情蔓延,高盛表示,影響似乎較預期嚴重,農曆新年長假首數天(1月24至28日)澳門的入境訪客量累計按年大跌74%,考慮到農曆年假是中場最繁忙的時間之一,目前無法推斷對未來幾個月賭收的影響,維持目標價53.2港元及“
買入
”評級不變。
高盛補充,以現時股價計,估值相當於今年預測企業價值對EBITDA倍數約14至15倍,相對於長期平均值則為14.5倍。過去一週股價下調約12%(同業平均跌17%)料已反映潛在受4至5個月武漢肺炎影響。展望2021年,假設往後回覆正常(參考2003年沙士爆發時序),則該股估值吸引,僅相當於2021年預測企業價值對EBITDA倍數約11.1倍。高盛稱,金沙股息率達5.2%,其於1月17日宣佈維持中期息每股99港仙不變,該行料全年派息維持1.99港元不變。
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