美銀證券:料疫情短期對內地航空業有影響
美銀證券發表報告指,因應武漢肺炎的疫情,短期對內地航空業有影響,下調國航(0753.HK)
和南航(1055.HK)
的投資評級均至“
跑輸大市
”,將國航目標價由9.25港元降至6.15港元,將南航目標價由6.15港元降至4.4港元。該行重申對國泰航空(0293.HK)
、東航(0670.HK)
“
買入
”評級,該行認為目前航空股估值過低,有重估的可能性,特別是當情況一旦轉為穩定。
該行指,目前全球確診4,600宗新型肺炎的個案,死亡人數為106,中國限制了約17個城市,超過5,000萬人次出境,目前的統計,預期在農曆新年期間,假期首兩天旅遊人數跌40%,同時相信近3日亦有受影響。
美銀證券料,國內旅遊面對短期影響,下行風險增加,以假設國內航線收入跌30%,推算國內航空公司股本回報率每月影響超過200點子。該行按沙士時期,航空股預測市盈率折讓10-15%推算,將國航和南航降級。
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