新股評級報告 | “下調” 九毛九（9922.HK）評價至5分
九毛九需要證明自己並沒有遭受到“估值下調、業績下滑”的戴維斯雙殺的最壞境況
作者 | 格隆匯新股
來源 | 格隆匯新股
數據支持 | 勾股大數據
本評級主要圍繞行業、公司、市場三大維度，針對目標公司各項核心指標進行打分評級，滿分為10分，各指標單獨評分，按“（權重佔比*分數）之和” 計算，最終結果按照四捨五入得到。
格隆匯新股研究根據已公開數據及獨家的內部評級體系，給予九毛九（9922.HK）的新股綜合評估的最新分數為5（滿分為10分），前次首次評分為7，方向為下調。如下圖：
下調評價的理由如下：
（1） 上市後自最高價回落幅度超過20%，並跌破了首日上市的最低價，技術上看跌。鑑於目前估值仍處於行業中的較高位置，首要調整目標可設定為招股價，因此下調打新風險回報比的評分至5分。
（2） 新股市場頻繁出現破發，並且正在申購的連鎖餐飲業公司大喜屋申購遇冷，估值較低，因此下調新股市場氛圍的評分至4分。
（3） 由於新冠病毒的影響，內地餐飲業預期受到至少兩個季度的影響，且同業間的競爭將更為激烈，因而對行業增長前景和競爭格局進行下調評分至4分。
（4） 新店開張及跨省擴張的預期大大減弱，進而降低公司商業模式可複製性的可能，下調商業模式獨特性至4分。
（5） 新店開張速度受到行業不利影響，已開張的新店的現金回收期亦預期會加長，因而預期公司的營收和盈利增速下滑，經營槓桿下降，因此需要調低對盈利能力與成長性的判斷，對該項評分下調至4分。
（6） 運營數據預期受到不利影響，包括翻枱率、坪效等，進而影響經營利潤率、淨利率、經營現金流創造速度、週轉率等財務指標，因此略微下調對財務質量的評價至5分。
（7） 當前影響投資者判斷的重要邏輯是，九毛九需要證明自己並沒有遭受到“估值下調、業績下滑”的戴維斯雙殺的最壞境況，這需要一定時間，而這個邏輯預期並非在短期能夠被打破。
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