花旗:升維達(3331.HK)目標價至20.2港元 今年毛利料進一步擴張
花旗發表研究報告,指維達(03331.HK)去年度純利升75%,大致符合其初步業績公佈,但高於預期16%,主因毛利較高、分銷成本較低,以及有效税率降低。管理層相信今年可繼續錄10%收入增長,但相信因應低成本的環境會令競爭加劇,管理層需要調整定價策略,同時預期木漿價格維持低位,故相信毛利率今年亦有提升。該行升維達2020-21年每股盈利預期11-15%,以反映更高的毛利和經營溢利,今明兩年核心盈利分別升28%及5%,目標價20.2港元,評級“買入”。
該行指,去年第四季維達自然銷售增長放慢至6.8%,而一至三季為12-15%,主因管理層在第四季競爭加劇的環境下維持均價,公司於雙11提供謹慎的折扣優惠,管理層推算首季收入表現與去年第四季大致相同,銷售增長於今年有增加,目標為雙位數增長。
該行又指,毛利率於第四季在36%,主因其有嚴格的定價策略,加上目前低木漿價格,和公司提升木漿庫存至6個月,因應無明顯的推廣活動,相信上半年毛利可以維持,管理層不預期木漿價格於今年提升,相信毛利可高於去年。

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