招商證券：維持中聯重科(1157.HK)“買入”評級 目標價8.23港元
近日招商證券發佈研究報告，稱在剔除股權激勵成本後，上調中聯重科(1157.HK)2020-21年調整後盈利預測1.2%/4.1%，以反映土方機械超預期的銷售增長和公司2019年在土方機械市場的良好表現。上調公司目標價1%至8.23港元，維持“買入”評級。
招商證券指出，渠道調研了三家區域性混凝土、工起和建起設備租賃商，租賃商普遍反映市場景氣度高，由環保和治理超載帶動的更新需求空間仍然很大。
具體情況是：就該區域性混凝土設備租賃商而言，其國三設備仍佔大多數。國三設備在二線城市已開始受到一定的限制，預計2020年的限制會逐步提升，加速倒逼主流設備租賃商更新其國三設備。混凝土攪拌車方面，對超載的執行力度各地不一，導致公司對新機採購持觀望態度;若嚴格執行，則公司混凝土攪拌車需求將提升一倍。
招商證券根據公司估算的混凝土泵送方量和設備需求量關係推算，全國混凝土設備存量規模達3,840億元人民幣，以8年折舊計算每年更新需求為480億元人民幣，行業龍頭2019年預計銷售收入為300億元人民幣。該建起租賃商披露，大塔(超過100噸米)的租金上升，小塔租金下降。公司約1/4的設備是大塔，未來預計逐步向大塔更新。2019年大塔出租率達98%，2020年設備採購金額預計提升20%。其超過50%的下游客户來自非地產。該工起租賃商表示下游客户為石化行業，目前訂單飽滿，公司認為大噸位設備需求更旺盛且回本週期更短。三家租賃商的共識是對2020年訂單樂觀，更新需求大，行業信用政策沒有放寬。
此外，公司股東大會通過了公司核心經營管理層持股方案，預計持股計劃的上限為3.9億股公司A股，受讓價格為2.75元人民幣。招商證券（香港）認為，公司持股方案將利好公司長期發展。
招商證券香港下調公司2019年淨利潤預測7.3%至43.8億元人民幣，稱預計淨利潤較低主要是由於四季度銷售費用的波動所導致，並不影響公司長期盈利能力。
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