大和：調整內房股目標價 大型股薦中國海外(0688.HK)、潤地(1109.HK)及龍湖(0960.HK)
大和發表報告指，認為內房股今年面對的波動應較去年少，相信部分公司可搶佔市場份額，內房股旗下可持續的租金收入及土地拍賣以外的渠道亦變得越來越重要，該行對內房行業維持“中性”看法，中至大型內房傾向選擇世茂房地產(00813.HK) 、旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)及越秀地產(00123.HK)，大型內房則推薦龍湖集團(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)及中國海外發展(00688.HK)。
該行調整內房股目標價，上調對中國海外目標價由34.1港元升至36.6港元，維持“買入”評級；調高龍湖集團目標價由35.5港元升至44.3港元，維持“買入”評級；昇華潤置地目標價由38.1港元升至44.2港元，維持“買入”評級。該行亦上調世房目標價由29.1港元升至36.4港元，維持“買入”評級；調升旭輝控股目標價由7.8港元升至8.4港元，維持“買入”評級；上調越秀地產目標價由2.1港元升至2.3港元，維持“買入”評級。
該行認為，2019年內房經營環境等均面對波動，包括是政策及信貸環境上的轉變等，估計今年波動將較少，並預期房地產政策及信貸趨緊的情況將維持，但料將有更多城市會輕微調整其政策，故信貸環境將較去年下半年寬鬆。儘管如此，該行預期今年內地新屋銷售將平穩，不會有重大的上行驚喜，銷量料將按年跌1%，而銷售額則料可按年增2%，當中一、二線城市表現將跑贏三、四線城市。
大和認為，內地樓市將繼續轉變，對開發商而言有危亦有機，假如可應對轉變的開發商或可從較弱的對手手上搶佔市場份額，該行有追蹤的22家內房開發商去年市佔率合計達41%，該行估計今年相關內房今年可繼續跑贏。
另外，該行亦認為租金收入對內房競爭力而言將更重要，投資者現時亦會考慮其租金收入規模，以計算其估值溢價，此外該行亦相信有能力自傳統土地拍外以外渠道獲得土地的企業，在行內地位將變得更為重要。
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