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里昂:料內地電訊業2020年將有較好表現 首選中移動(0941.HK)
格隆匯 01-21 16:37
里昂發表報告指,內地電訊商去年股價下跌約13%,跑輸MSCI中國指數約33個百分點,主要因為4G市場已成熟以及競爭加劇,該行料行業在2020年將有較好表現,主要因為競爭理性化加上5G推出,該行估計5G將助用户基礎重拾增長,並可助穩定ARPU,而工業互聯網亦將為行業帶來中長期的新機遇,首選中國移動(0941.HK) ,認為公司在有較好的網絡覆蓋及規模,可成5G贏家,予“ 買入 ”評級,目標價87港元,而中國聯通(0762.HK) 及中國電信(0728.HK) 在5G上則面對較大的成本壓力。
該行指出,2020年屬中國5G元年,內地將推80萬個5G基站、覆蓋290個城市,電訊商將聚焦在獨立組網(SA)的5G網絡,估計未來三年每年將花200億美元在5G資本開支上,以建立全國5G覆蓋,估計每年的總資本開支將維持在550億美元水平。
由於5G智能手機價格下跌幅度較快,該行估計內地到2020年中每部5G手機將跌穿2,000元人民幣水平,而到2020年底將跌至1,500元人民幣水平,有助於下半年吸納大眾使用5G,估計到2020年底5G用户將達1億至1.5億户,而到2021年底則將達3.5億至4億户。該行亦認為5G應用如AR/VR、高清媒體、廣播及雲端遊戲等將進一步增加用户數據使用,而企業應用則會較遲出現,但工業互聯網中長期仍會帶來新的收入來源。
該行認為中移動為其首選,並將為5G贏家,而公司去年下半年表現較弱主要礙於競爭激烈及4G市場發展成熟,但公司有穩定派息,相信今年其服務收入可按年增3.8%,而受惠5G推出盈利可按年增3.2%,而5G上客亦將在下半年加快,估計到今年底旗下5G用户將達7,000萬户,相關因素均可成股價的催化劑。
里昂認為,聯通將面對較大的5G開支壓力,故將其2019及2020年盈利預測各下調3.6%及17.9%,目標價由10.5港元降至9.2港元,評級“ 買入 ”,估計其業務今年將繼續改善,收入料可按年增3.1%,而盈利則可按年增20.7%。而中電信方面該行估計今年其服務收入將按年增3.2%,但盈利表現受5G相關開支拖累將按年持平,當中流動業務繼續跑贏行業增長,但寬帶業務所面對的競爭則較大,重申“ 跑輸大市 ”評級,目標價由3.7港元降至3.5港元。
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