大悦城2019年業績預告點評：結算趨緩，勾地成效初顯
來源：小謝看地產
導讀
公司發佈2019年業績預告，歸母淨利潤約23.5億-25.5億，同比增長14%-24%，低於預期。公司2020年將釋放2019年拿地項目，迎來高增長，維持增持評級。
1、2019年業績低於預期，結算延遲，考慮到公司2019年下半年開始加大拿地力度，銷售將於2020年釋放，未來增長可期。維持增持評級，調整2019年-2021年EPS分別為0.65/ 0.72/0.91元（原為0.69/0.74/0.85元，2020年初股本數因定增發生變動，2019年EPS計算仍按原股本數計算），維持目標價9.65元，現價對應2019年PE為10.69倍。
2、公司2019年下半年結算趨緩，業績低於預期。業績預告全年歸母淨利潤約23.5億-25.5億，同比增長14%-24%。分季度看，Q1/Q2/Q3歸母淨利潤分別為11.97/7.34/5.04億，Q4歸母淨利潤僅約1億。8月底轉讓長風大悦城、西安大悦城股份，前三季度合計實現投資收益7.47億，扣除投資收益，預計全年歸母淨利潤約20.41億-22.4億。
3、引入戰投完成，2019年下半年加大拿地力度。1）2019年12月，向戰略投資者太平人壽、工銀瑞信投資定增募集資金24.26 億元，太平人壽和工銀瑞信投資分別持股6.61%、1.80%，太平人壽成為第二大股東。2）公司全年實現權益銷售約481.1億，同比增長約20%；2019年新增項目22個，權益計容建面約360萬方，平均樓面價5409元/平，拿地規模大幅增加，且半數以上為底價拿地，勾地成效初顯。
4、2020年釋放2019年新增項目，維持增持評級。2018年提出“6915”戰略，拿地到開工銷售縮短。2019年新增土儲在2020年將推盤入市，預計銷售將放量增長，看好公司勾地資源住宅變現，維持增持評級。
風險提示：商業受到新零售衝擊。
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