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花旗:予國壽(2628.HK)目標價25港元 評級“買入”
格隆匯 01-20 17:06
花旗研究報告指中國人壽(2628.HK) 發盈喜,料去年純利按年升4至4.2倍,至介乎570億至593億元人民幣(下同)。大致符預期。假設以中位數4.1倍計,國壽去年純利將較市場預測高3%。撇除單次性項目,去年經常性純利料按年升3.5至3.7倍,至介乎522億至545億元。意味去年末季純利將按年大幅改善,由前年同期的虧損85億元,轉至介乎虧損7.27億至錄純利16億元;而末季經常性純利料按年升95%至122%,至介乎虧損4.52億至錄純利19億元。
報告表示,與去年首三季盈利預告相似,國壽將純利大升歸功於投資收入及去年5月有利税務政策落地。國壽強調其加快資產管理市場化及優化資產分配,致投資回報改善。此外,中國財政部、國家税務總局下發《關於保險企業手續費及佣金支出税前扣除政策的公告》,明確2018年度企業所得税彙算清繳按照該公告執行。因執行該政策,公司2018年度應交企業所得税減少約51.54億元。
花旗稱,今年傳統產品儲備折扣率料明顯擴大,強勁盈利及每股分派上升週期料去年已見頂,該行料國壽基本壽險業務理想增長勢頭將延續至今年,受惠代理團隊健康擴張及產品組合進一步改善。花旗稱,國壽壽險業務持續交出理想成績,料改變投資者對公司印象,並提振投資者信心。該行認為,國壽H股現價僅相當於今年預測市值/內含價值比率0.5倍屬被低估,予目標價25港元,評級“ 買入 ”。

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