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中金:升北京控股(0392.HK)目標價22%至45港元 評級上調至“跑贏行業”
格隆匯 01-20 14:58

中金髮布研報稱,北京控股(00392.HK)過去幾年雖然盈利保持穩健,但是股價因為過去幾年不斷降低派息率而表現承壓。過去12個月跑輸大盤20個百分點。中金預計FY19年是該公司派息率的拐點,有望多年來首次回升,並帶來估值的提升。上調目標價22%至45港幣(對應23%上行空間),同時上調公司“中性”至“跑贏行業”評級。

中金表示,北京控股估值在歷史低位,下行風險已經全部反映。當前股價交易在2020年0.6倍市淨率和5.3倍市盈率,均為多年來的歷史較低水平。該估值主要受到近些年持續下調的派息率與投資者對公司的多元化折扣過高的影響,完全不能反映公司運營的基本面,未來估值有望提升。

中金還稱,該公司的派息率FY19到了拐點,近年來首次提升。中金預計公司FY19全年的派息率將達到20%,成為一個拐點,並在未來幾年逐步提升,有望達到歷史高位的30%甚至以上。

此外,中金預計陝京線FY19氣量增長5%,並帶來20%左右的盈利增長。雖然市場對於陝京線的前景有較大的不確定性,但是中金認為對於北控而言,其持有的陝京線40%權益會在未來幾年持續穩定地貢獻盈利和現金流。

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