大摩:升中資電訊業看法至“吸引” 首選中移動(0941.HK)
摩根士丹利發表報告,即使保守地假設轉移至5G網絡的速度將會較4G為慢,而且ARPU的增長幅度僅10%,但預期2019至2022年的移動服務收入年複合增長將為2.5%,料可推動中資電訊企業利潤率從2019年的負8%,提升至2019至2022年的5%,決定將中資電訊業的看法,由“
符預期
”升至“
吸引
”。
該行認為,理性的競爭將可維持更長的5G升級週期,指出早年的4G升級週期維持不到一年以上,主要是由於中電信(0728.HK)
及中國聯通(0762.HK)
在2015年初推出相關服務後競爭加劇。相反,今次該行有充分的證據看到即將到來的5G升級週期將會更為可持續,正以最理性的競爭步入5G週期。
另外,大摩認為現時內地電訊股的估值吸引,指現時大家對5G資本開支的憂慮已在市場定價上反映出來,但受到5GARPU增長所推動的潛在盈利提升因素則仍被市場忽略。基於5%的股息收益率提供了下行支撐,看到此板塊具有吸引力的風險回報。
該行表示,目前對所有內地電訊股給予“
增持
”投資評級,首選中移動(0941.HK)
,但將中電信目標價由4.5港元降至3.8港元,將中國聯通的目標價由12港元降8.5港元,以反映市場份額維持穩定的預期。
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