金山軟件(3888.HK)：雲上市將正向影響現金流，維持“買入”評級，目標價30.1 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：30.1 港元
核心觀點：
金山雲上市後將對公司現金流有很大正向影響。根據公司此前公告， 金山雲已向美股提交招股書，分拆完成後，金山雲將不再為公司附屬 公司（即不併表，以聯營公司入賬）， 且將構成視作出售公司附屬公司 權益。考慮到金山雲目前尚處於虧損階段，分拆將對公司現金流有很 大正向影響，公司另外 2 塊業務遊戲和 WPS 均是現金流業務。金山雲 收入保持高增長，虧損趨於收窄，根據公司指引，2019 年收入預計同 比+70%，2020 年預計保持高增長，毛利率於 19Q3 轉正，視頻仍是 增長最快的細分行業，金融雲、政務雲處於高增長階段。
WPS 發展勢頭很好，遊戲目前市場預期低。根據公司指引，WPS 2019 年收入預計同比增長接近 40%，運營利潤率有所降低，主要是業務快 速擴張，加大研發投入。2C 會員付費業務保持高增長，截至 2019 年 9 月付費用户達 670 萬，同比增長 120%。2B 業務受益於國產化趨勢， 預計維持強勁增長。《劍網 3》手遊更新版有望於春節後上線，儲備 3+3 遊戲，3 款（《劍歌行》《魔域 3D》《卧龍吟》）有版號，上線後將為 20 年貢獻增量，3 款有望 20 年上線。
維持“買入”評級。預計 19~20 年歸母淨利為-14.17 億元、3.84 億元。 2020 年多款手遊將上線並帶來增量，上調遊戲利潤，WPS 當前市值 並結合港股市場整體估值，上調 WPS 2020 年 PE 估值為 65 倍，根據 SOTP，上調合理價值為 30.1 港元/股。辦公和雲發展勢頭好，WPS 受益於國產化趨勢，金山雲受益於 5G，分拆上市提振投資信心；遊戲 預期較低。截至 19Q3 公司擁有現金及銀行存款近 90 億元，金山雲出 表後公司現金流將大幅改善，賬上現金充裕。
風險提示。老遊戲流水自然回落，新遊不及預期；WPS 在科創板估值 波動，2C 業務增長不及預期；雲服務市場競爭導致虧損擴大。
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