中國科培(1890.HK)：14.5億收購黑龍江本科學校，顯著增厚業績，維持買入評級，目標價6.25 港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.25 港元
收購哈爾濱石油學院 100%股權。
1 月 13 日，公司公告，與肇慶科培、賣方、華瑞及目標學校訂立股權轉讓 協議，以人民幣 14.5 億元的價格收購目標學校的 100%出資人權益及（重 組完成後）目標公司的 100%股權。
本次交易金額分三期支付，支付方式靈活。第一期 4.5 億，簽署轉讓協議 及委託管理協議，可淨利潤並表；第二期 7 億，完成舉辦者變更，可全面 並表；第三期 3 億，可遞延至 2020 年 9 月 15 日，可用新學校現金流支付， 付款條件優越。
哈爾濱石油學院為已完成轉設的民辦本科，目前在校本科生 9366 人，土地 1000 畝。學校共設 11 個學院，31 個專業。學校位於哈爾濱國家級新區核 心地段，地理位置較為優越。
財務方面，截至 19 年底，淨利潤 6842 萬（同比增 88%）。學校總資產 8.5 億，淨資產 7.6 億。
並表後上調盈利預測，維持買入評級。
目前港股教育板塊平均估值約為 2020 年 16.9xPE，考慮到中國科培本次並 購展現出的較強併購能力及地處大灣區學額增長紅利顯著，我們選取行業 中對應併購實力及區域紅利較強的可比公司估值，對應 2020 年 18.5xPE； 我們給予中國科培該行業平均估值即 18.5xPE。
如果不考慮併購，我們維持盈利預測 FY19-20 淨利分別為 4.3、5 億；考慮 到本次併購標的業績增厚，我們預測並表後 FY20-21 淨利分別為 6 億、7.2 億。當前股價對應 PE 分別為 12x、10x。目標市值 6 億*18.5xPE=111 億人 民幣，125 億港幣，目標價格 6.25 港幣（對應匯率 0.888 人民幣/港幣）
風險提示：民促法實施條例尚未落地，併購效果不及預期，收購進展不及 預期
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