微盟集團(2013.HK)：受益於微信商業生態提速，維持“買入”評級，目標價6.5 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.5 港元
核心觀點：
微信公開課明確提出 2020 年小程序將重點建設商業場景，助力商家 打造商業閉環。根據微信公開課，小程序 DAU 突破 3 億，2019 年累 計交易額超 8,000 億元，同比增長 160%，其中電商、零售行業爆發式 增長，非互聯網玩家、中長尾的小程序商業化程度正在加速。
微盟作為微信生態領先的第三方商業 SaaS 服務商直接受益。微盟 SaaS 商業雲覆蓋電商、零售、餐飲、休閒娛樂、酒旅等行業，其中電 商 SaaS 貢獻主要收入，零售 SaaS 處於快速增長中，在業內產品和 技術方面處於領先地位。騰訊於 1 月 7 日啟動“SaaS 技術聯盟”，微 盟作為外部 SaaS 廠商之一，與騰訊內部 SaaS，共建技術中台，使用 户通過一個賬號購買多家 SaaS 廠商的服務，實現集成服務。
公司業務穩健增長。SaaS 業務受益於微信商業生態提速，中大型客户 增多，ARPU 至提升同時流失率收窄，營銷業務拓展 KA 及非騰訊媒體 繼續實現快速增長，預計全年毛收入翻倍增長。
成立 2 只產業基金，主要投資併購垂直領域 SaaS 公司。聯合上海雙 創成立規模 10 億元的微盟產業基金，側重有一定積累和沉澱的成熟企 業；成立南京華映微盟基金（首期規模 2 億），主要針對初創型企業。
維持“買入”評級。2020 年微信商業生態提速，微盟作為騰訊生態領先 的商業 SaaS 公司將受益；公司通過內生和投資併購，深化多垂直行 業和多元業務的服務能力矩陣。公司於 19Q4 回購 1 億港元股份，彰 顯信心。預計 19~21 年歸母淨利為 3.12 億、1.27 億、2.51 億。參考 可比公司估值，對 SaaS 業務按 2020 年 13 倍 PS 估值，營銷業務按 2020 年 15 倍 PE，根據分部估值結論，上調合理價值為 6.5 港元/股。
風險提示。微信商業生態發展不及預期，SaaS 收入增長不及預期，虧 損擴大；廣告主預算收窄，佣金率下降，費用增長；現金流變差。
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