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維他奶遭沽空機構狙擊:誇大利潤及資本開支,股價應跌6成
格隆匯 01-16 11:54

據信報,沽空機構Valiant Varriors發表報告,狙擊維他奶國際 (0345.HK) ,形容集團的中國增長題材為“國王的新衣”,僅予10元目標價,較前收市價27.7元有63.9%潛在跌幅。

該機構指出,維他奶聲稱近年在內地搶佔大量市場份額,受投資者矚目,股價由2009年3.5元飆升至2019年的46.5元,市值增長13倍。

不過該機構認為當中“水份很大”,集團管理層隱瞞諸多事實,為了體現高毛利率,嚴重誇大內地和澳洲的利潤和資本開支,同時低報成本上浮的影響。

Valiant Varriors表示,有充分理由相信維他奶財報中的資本支出遠低於實際支出,財報和集團提交給中國工商總局的資料差額巨大,充分證明維他奶的現金流狀況不佳,財務欺詐是唯一可用來騙取大眾虛高利潤的方法。

該機構又指,由於原料成本上升,維他奶主要的競爭對手統一(0220.HK)和康師傅(0322.HK)的利潤率都有所下降。該機構與業內專家核實,包裝成本和勞動力成本確實大幅上升,但對維他奶令人難以置信地幾乎沒有影響,毛利率反而更升至50%以上,遠高於行業平均的35%。

另外,該機構質疑維他奶的庫存週轉天數由15天升至60天;雖然在內地南方有很強銷售網絡,但在北方發展平平;推出新產品方面也舉步維艱,一直以來只依賴兩款已經上市幾十年的豆奶和茶飲,隨着飲料行業競爭日益激烈,維他奶的市場份額在逐漸減少。

該機構認為,維他奶去年12月稱內地銷售放緩,只是問題的冰山一角,實際情況遠要糟糕得多;該機構堅信,即使維他奶股價過去三個月大跌,但市值仍應遠低於目前。

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