餐飲行業系列專題：從九毛九上市看中式快時尚餐飲爆發
機構：國信證券
快時尚餐飲：“快”且“時尚”，定位中端，蓬勃興起 快時尚餐飲：介於快餐、正餐間；“快”：有限服務，一般用餐時間≤1h， 翻座率>2.0；“時尚”：選址商圈，裝潢較高端，主打高質量食材、健康 餐飲，打造網紅餐飲屬性；中端定位，客單 50-150 元。去三公&消費升 級下利好中端餐飲，Mall 時代零售弱化餐飲引流，助力快時尚餐飲崛起。
國際對標：美國快時尚餐飲領漲，龍頭 CMG 高估值長牛 近十餘年，美國餐飲業快時尚餐飲增速領漲，07-16 年份額佔比翻番至 18%；頭部較集中，2018 年 CR5=33%。龍頭 CMG（墨式燒烤）上市 14 年股價上漲 17 倍，2019 年股價大漲 94%，高成長下高估值（PE 中 樞 65x+），遠超行業平均 25x，一因上市前麥當勞標準化管理&供應鏈奠 基，二因墨西哥菜相對大賽道；三因上市後本地供應商計劃等管理創新。
九毛九 PK 西貝：各有千秋，解碼中式快時尚餐飲基因 西貝：精準定位及供應鏈優化成就國內西北菜 NO.1；九毛九：傳統西北 菜平穩下另起一行，成功孵化太二酸菜魚快速增長。二者均以精簡 SKU 助力標準化擴張及供應鏈優化，但經營上各有千秋。營銷上，太二側重 反向營銷、運營創新，而西貝主打健康餐飲賦能；激勵上，九毛九扁平 化，品牌團隊持股 15%，西貝系合夥制賽場制，創業分部持股 40%。
展望：中式快時尚餐飲方興未艾，關注龍頭跨賽道複製擴張能力 相比美國，中式快時尚餐飲仍處發展初期，賽道優質，多元化菜系下未 來成長空間廣闊。展望未來，我們認為快時尚餐飲龍頭一看行業成長紅 利，二看連鎖化率（中美餐飲連鎖化率 5%PK30%）和集中度提升（中 美快時尚餐飲 CR5=7.5%PK33%）空間；三看龍頭依託供應鏈資金和管 理支持跨賽道孵化能力，隨着國內餐飲品牌迭代加快，後者尤其核心。
投資建議：聚焦業績確定性、可跨賽道複製的快時尚餐飲龍頭 維持板塊“超配”。建議聚焦賽道優質、品牌及系統化平台優勢凸顯、展 店和業績確定性相對較高的國內餐飲龍頭。其中海底撈模式激勵獨樹一 幟，品牌及平台優勢突出，估值不低，未來建議跟蹤其快速展店後的同 店表現；九毛九即將港股上市，估值預計不低，短看太二跨區域擴張有 望支撐其收入業績較快成長，中線核心看跨賽道孵化新品牌能力；呷哺 呷哺短期經營相對平穩，中線建議關注其新模型持續優化。長線來看， 依託供應鏈平台和管理優勢，餐飲龍頭既有品牌的持續優化擴張和跨賽 道孵化新品牌能力成為支撐其長線看點的核心。
風險提示：系統性風險，食品安全，傳染疫情及展店不及預期等
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