啟明醫療-B(2500.HK):瓣膜置換新時代的“啟明星“,首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價47.3港元
機構:招商證券
評級:買入
目標價:47.3港元
極具潛力且快速增長的經導管瓣膜置換行業 根據弗若斯特沙利文的預測,全球經導管主動脈瓣置換手術(TAVR)/經 導 管 肺 動 脈 瓣 置 換 手 術 ( TPVR ) 市 場 將 在 2018-2025E 年 分 別 以 14.3%/14.4%的複合年增速達到104億美元/564.5百萬美元。同時,中國的 TAVR市場在2018-2025E年將以65.0%的複合年增速達到956.6百萬美元, 而中國的TPVR市場則將在2020E-2025E年以57.8%的複合年增速達到 118.5百萬美元。主要驅動因素包括:1)產品適應症的擴大;2)滲透率的 提高;3)技術的迭代;及4)符合資格的醫療機構及嫻熟的TAVR醫生不斷 增多。
啟明處於TAVR/TPVR行業的領先位置 啟明醫療(啟明,下同)擁有全體系的經導管心臟瓣膜產品及研發管線。 與跨國企業相比,啟明的TAVR/TPVR產品更適合中國患者。同時,其產品 的市場認可度較同期上市的國產競品也在進一步提高。隨着相關輔助產品 管線的收購完成,我們認為公司將能提供優於競品臨牀效果的組合手術方 案。最後,我們相信公司在中國取得的先發優勢,將使其繼續維持該行業 的領先地位。
我們首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價為47.3港元 啟明在2018年實現營業收入人民幣1.15億元,淨虧損人民幣0.55億元。鑑 於其TAVR產品的滲透率不斷提高,醫院覆蓋面不斷擴大,以及TPVR產品 的推出,我們預計公司收入將同比增長99%/121%/95%,併到2020年將實 現盈利。我們根據分部加總法得到的目標價為47.3港元,主要包含了 TAVR(含TriGuard3和TAV8)及TPVR等管線的調整後淨現值,以及額外 20%的估值溢價以反映公司成功的併購經歷和較強的資本配置能力。主要 假設包括:新產品的上市時間、產品均價的趨勢、產品的滲透率、永續增 長率等。同時,我們亦提供同業可比倍數-市銷率(P/S)和現金流折現法 (DCF)的估值結果以供參考。
主要風險 主要風險包括產品結構集中風險、臨牀試驗風險及商業化風險和競爭風險。

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