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花旗彭程:地缘政治影响短暂 料中美今年难签第二轮协议
阿思达克 01-15 12:01

中东局势持续紧张,惟花旗私人银行亚洲投资策略主管彭程认为,地缘政治事件相信对经济市场影响不大,以美国911事件为例,当地股市九十日後已见回升约4%,认为过去众多历史事件反映,市场一般对短暂影响反应迅速。

中美即将签署首阶段贸易协议,美国日前更将中国剔出汇率操纵国名单,他表示「今年谈成第一阶段已足够」,认为第二阶段谈成与否对市场实际影响都不大,因为贸易战已发生第三年,企业早已做好长期准备,纷争常态化後影响愈来愈少。他又预期,第二阶段谈判料将涉及不止经济层面的议题,相信谈判会更需时及困难。

花旗私人银行亚洲投资策略师张敏华补充,就中美目前态度,相信双方就汇价有共识,预期未来若进一步削减关税,人民币兑美元汇价将达6.7至6.85,否则将维持「七算」水平。

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