吉利汽車（175.HK）：2019年銷量數據公佈，2020E有望盈利修復
作者：光大汽車/港股及海外市場
倪昱婧/邵將/秦波
◆2019年銷量數據公佈
2019年吉利總銷量同比下降9%至136.2萬輛（vs.我們預測約138.2萬輛）；其中，博越總銷量同比微降1.0%至22.4萬輛（銷量佔比約16.4%），包括新能源版車型在內的帝豪系列總銷量同比下降8.0%至20.5萬輛（銷量佔比約15.1%），繽越（2018/10上市）系列總銷量同比增長4.2x至13.8萬輛（銷量佔比約10.1%），領克01/02/03（02於2018/6上市，03於2018/10上市）系列總銷量同比增長6.4%至12.8萬輛（銷量佔比約9.5%）。
◆新車型陸續上市，有望提振銷量
主力車型博越的改款車型博越Pro已於2019/9上市，預計配置升級/新增車型的陸續上市有望提振博越系列銷量；此外，新車型Icon（BMA平台SUV）、Preface（CMA平台A+級轎車）、幾何B（純電動SUV）、商用型MPV、以及領克05（轎跑SUV）與06（BMA平台SUV）均將於2020E規劃上市，預計有望驅動銷量實現穩健增長（我們預計2020E吉利銷量同比增長9%至148.7萬輛 vs. 銷量目標約141萬輛）。
◆2020E有望盈利修復，看好公司長期佈局發展
我們判斷，1）業績彈性或將成為推動板塊上漲的主要驅動力。2）受益於1H19去庫、以及2H19銷量環比增長（2H19吉利銷量環比增長8.9%至71.0萬輛），我們預計2H19E公司毛利率有望環比改善（預計2019E毛利率同比下降2.0個百分點至18.2% vs. 1H19約17.8%）。3）鑑於行業邊際改善、庫存有效管理、以及公司改款/新車型上市對銷量的提振影響，預計2020E公司盈利有望修復。4）吉利為自主最優質車企之一，在海外市場/新能源汽車領域積極佈局，我們長期看好公司發展前景。
◆上調至“增持”評級
鑑於2H19公司銷量改善趨勢，我們上調2019E歸母淨利潤至人民幣91.5億元；鑑於1H20E行業邊際改善/盈利修復、以及新車型驅動的銷量爬坡，我們上調2020E/2021E歸母淨利潤分別至人民幣107.8億元/114.9億元。我們上調目標價至HK$16.77（對應約12.8x 2020E PE），上調至“增持”評級。
◆風險提示 1H20E行業邊際改善/盈利修復不及預期，新車型上市/銷量爬坡不及預期。
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