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敏華控股(01999.HK):內銷持續良好增長,回購股份彰顯信心,維持“買入”評級,目標價7.08港元
格隆匯 01-10 16:51

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

目標價:7.08港元

核心觀點:

持續回購股份,彰顯公司發展信心。公司1月8日披露公告,根據2019年7月5日股東大會的一般授權,公司於1月8日回購355.2萬股股份,合計動用1986.08萬港元(均價5.59港元/股)。此前2019年9月,公司回購公司股份共計1045.08萬股。

財務總監、董事會祕書更換。根據公司公告披露,自2020年1月15日起,曾海林先生將辭任公司執行董事、CFO、公司祕書,楊慧焱女士將獲任公司執行董事、CFO,傅瑩女士將獲任公司祕書。楊慧焱曾在廣州汽車集團擔任十餘年副總會計師;傅瑩為公司地區財務總監,並曾擔任香港電視網絡有限公司財務經理。

公司前期外銷訂單修復提振業績,本次股份回購背後,是公司對內銷市場持續良好增長的信心。自2020財年上半財年開始,外銷訂單逐步轉移至越南,訂單逐步回升,同時內銷收入增長轉好(上半財年同比+11.8%)。展望內銷市場後續:(1)國內房地產竣工數據好轉,軟體需求景氣度有望持續回暖;(2)針對分化的市場需求,公司將品牌矩陣重新劃分,如推出意斯特子品牌來針對國內高端市場;(3)產品方面,公司推出歐式沙發,規格小型化、配色年輕化、外觀更美觀。疊加上一財年內銷低基數,看好公司2020財年內銷的增長態勢。

再次重申公司內外銷雙雙好轉的觀點。我們在去年12月發佈的《測算竣工復甦高度與持續性,挖掘全產業鏈投資機遇》中,測算2019-2021年竣工增速分別為0.2%、10.4%和5.9%,2020年有望顯著好轉;在去年3月/6月/11月發佈的公司跟蹤報告中,闡述了內外銷增長邏輯:內銷擁抱新設計和新流量,外銷藉助越南基地重塑出口格局。

盈利預測與投資建議。長期看好公司產品的全球競爭力,預計公司2020~2022財年的歸母淨利潤為15.5、18.0、21.0億港元,1月8日最新收盤價對應PE13.7、11.9、10.1倍。公司內銷好轉,外銷依靠越南產能對衝中美貿易爭端,PE倍數逐步修復至歷史估值中樞14倍。鑑於公司內銷自主品牌佔比提升、且增長態勢良好,相比於過去以代工為主的商業模式理應給予估值溢價,給予公司合理估值2021財年15倍PE,對應合理價值7.08港元/股,維持公司“買入”評級。

風險提示。匯率大幅波動和原材料價格大幅波動影響公司利潤率的風險;內銷市場拓展不及預期;貿易爭端演化具有不確定性的風險。

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