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《专题》一表了解油价与油服行业传导关系
阿思达克 01-10 13:02

据中银国际去年9月报告,列出对油价与油服行业传导关系:

油价与油服行业传导关系

(1)原油市场供应变化及其他因素(如美伊局势紧张)-

(2)原油价格变化-

(3)油公司资本开支调整-

(4)勘探开发项目数量变化-

(5)设备与服务公司订单、收入及业绩变动国际市场:

油价上行:传导油公司资本开支1.5至2年

油价下行:传导油公司资本开支2至3个季度国内市场:

油价上行:传导油公司资本开支1至1.5年

油价下行:传导油公司资本开支0至2个季度

-当油价显着高於开发成本时,油气公司开采动力加大,油服公司工作量提升

该行估计,布兰特油价处每桶50美元以上时,油服工程公司季度收入可保正增长

-据Rystad Energy研究显示,中东地区原油开发成本平均每桶27美元,近海油田成本每桶41美元

当布兰特油价中枢稳定每桶55美元,大部份国家原油开发可覆盖成本,实现盈利

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