《專題》一表列出大摩料油價變動對「三桶油」股盈影響之敏感度分析
摩根士丹利本周二(7日)發表報告,最新對布蘭特油價於2020年及2021年預測,每桶各為60.8及58.1美元,料長期預測為每桶60美元,同時列出布蘭特油價於不同情境下對中資三大石油股(三桶油)2020年股盈預測影響:
油價情境│中石油(00857.HK)│中海油(00883.HK)│中石化(00386.HK)
2020年基本預測│股盈預測0.24元人幣│股盈預測1.01元人幣│股盈預測0.41元人幣
布油每桶60美元情境│股盈預測0.22元人幣│股盈預測0.98元人幣│股盈預測0.4元人幣
布油每桶70美元情境│股盈預測0.44元人幣│股盈預測1.36元人幣│股盈預測0.56元人幣
布油每桶80美元情境│股盈預測0.63元人幣│股盈預測1.68元人幣│股盈預測0.7元人幣
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油價情境│中石油股盈潛在變幅│中海油股盈潛在變幅│中石化股盈潛在變幅
布油每桶60升至70美元│+100%│+38.8%│+40%
布油每桶70升至80美元│+43%│+23.5%│+25%
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