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野村:升新華保險(1336.HK)目標價至48.58港元 評級“買入”
格隆匯 01-09 17:28

野村發佈報告稱,將新華保險(1336.HK)H股目標價上調2.21%,由原來的47.53港元升至48.58港元,維持“買入”評級。

該行稱,有別於過去以業務價值為主導的策略,新華保險今年將在業務量及價值之間取得平衡,估計今年業務量將出現強勁增長。該行估計,新華今年將採取在業務量及價值之間取得平衡的新策略,主要由於公司開門紅年金產品的預定利率仍達4.025%,並在銀行保險方面推出躉交產品,以及公司去年的代理人數達50萬人。

考慮到新的策略,該行將新華險2020及2021年的APE(首年標準保費)增長預測分別由12%及9%調升至29%和10%,但估計同期新業務價值利潤率將會收縮,因此維持2019-21年的新業務價值預測分別為下跌10%、增長10%及增長8%不變。該行維持新華保險盈利預測大致不變,意味着2020年盈利將下跌29%,主要由於去年上半年20億元人民幣的一次性税收收益產生高基數效應,導致淨利潤受壓,以及內地政府債券收益率下降。

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