波司登 ( 03998.HK ) ：暖冬環境下零售流水高增長鞏固市場信心，波司登品牌升級紅利持續釋放，維持“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：公司公告在FY19/20前九個月中（2019/4/1-2019/12/31）公司波司登品牌羽絨服業務累計零售金額增長超過30%。同時品牌羽絨服業務下的其他品牌零售金額增長超過40%。公司品牌羽絨服業務在線上、線下均表現出快速增長趨勢。
在19年入冬以來南方天氣明顯偏暖的情況下，波司登旗下的品牌羽絨服業務依舊保持了高速的增長態勢，充分顯示出公司在品牌、產品、渠道、和零售運營上的全面升級，正在被消費者認可。
公司的品牌重塑計劃在FY19/20持續推進，9月米蘭時裝週設計師系列發佈會邀請名模KendalJenner走秀、NicoleKidman觀秀，同時聘請“帶貨女王”楊冪成為設計師系列代言人、10月登峯造極高端系列發佈會反響強烈、11月與愛馬仕設計師高緹耶在上海隆重推出聯名款羽絨服、並連續與包括TomHiddleston、ScarlettJohansson等大牌歐美演員合作實現產品露出，全方位提升品牌在消費者心目中的形象。
12月7日作為第二屆海南島國際電影節活動之一的“極寒·巔峯上的時尚——波司登&國際時裝大師聯名秀”在海南三亞上演，波司登聯合國際時尚設計師KenzoTakada(高田賢三)與EnnioCapasa設計的40款時尚羽絨服精彩亮相，同時在12月23日再度聯合天貓啟動超級品牌日活動。從雙十一數據可以看到，波司登主品牌羽絨服消費客單價繼續提升，同時年輕消費者的佔比也迅速提升。
公司於12約20日公佈股份回購計劃，將以從經營活動取得的可動用現金為回購行為提供資金，回購股份數量上限為2019年8月26日已發行股份數量的10%，進一步表明公司對於自身業務發展前景的信心。
盈利預測及投資建議：在暖冬下，波司登逆勢保持較高的收入增長，我們認為這體現出波司登品牌勢能的提升，以及隨着渠道與產品的持續升級，消費者對其認可度的持續提升。在這樣的基礎上，考慮到2021春節較晚，元旦與春節期間的銷售旺季較2020年更長，服裝行業有望迎來業績大年，我們對波司登未來的業績增長依舊抱有充足信心。我們維持FY20/FY21/FY22淨利潤13.4億/17.4億/21.3億的業績預期，同比增長36.9%/29.6%/22.3%，對應PE20X/16X/13X，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：經濟環境、天氣變化使終端零售需求不及預期。
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