中金：中東地緣風險支撐油價 金價短期上行幅度或達每盎司50美元
中金昨發表報告表示，就1月3日，伊拉克巴格達國際機場遇襲，引發市場對中東供應擔憂，美伊衝突的不斷升級也引發市場對兩伊地區原油供應及出口不確定性的擔憂。
該行指，雖然當前局勢緊張，但整體上看，伊拉克供應尚未受到影響。美軍對伊拉克民兵組織的空襲多集中在基爾庫克地區，距離伊拉克原油重鎮巴士拉省較遠，在危機不蔓延到南部的情形下，原油供應尚未受到影響。此外，伊拉克的Nassiriya油田由於工人罷工被迫停產，產量8萬桶/天，但其減產量由Basra油田的額外產量彌補，對整體供應並無影響。
中金指，目前油價更多受風險溢價支撐，後續影響幾何仍需依據局勢發展來做判斷，整體而言，無論伊拉克局勢如何演變，中金對此前油價的判斷需上調相應的風險溢價；中期看，美伊後續事態的發展將會決定是否會扭轉全球原油基本面格局。
分情形看，情形一假設類似敍利亞危機期間，可能性較大。中東地區局勢基本可控，對原油供應並無影響，但該行仍預計市場對供應的擔憂及下游預防性備庫可能給油價帶來5至8美元/桶支撐。雖然如此，風險因素對油價提振持續時間較短，預計持續時間可能在一個月左右。
情形二，假設類似持續時間更長的沙特遇襲事件，目前並無跡像。當前伊拉克石油產量465萬桶/天，出口374萬桶/天。若其供應完全受阻，中金認為，其出口削減可能導致全球油市從過剩100萬桶/天轉為短缺270萬桶/天，美國頁巖油預期增產將被中東地區被動減產完全抵消。原油風險溢價疊加減產支撐，預計國際原油或將上漲15美元/桶，並持續全年。
總體上看，該行認為，近期金價的上行本身仍然缺乏驅動因素，而隨着美伊關係進一步惡化，地緣政治衝突可能成為短期內影響黃價的主要因子。在情形一的基準下，類似敍利亞危機期間，該行認為避險情緒可能支撐未來一個月的價格上行，幅度或達50美元/盎司。
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