美的置業( 03990.HK ) :高質量潛能持續釋放,穩健引領智慧生活,給予“優於大市”評級
機構:海通證券
評級:優於大市
投資要點:
“房地產+產業”複合型開發商,配股增強股本流動性。美的置業成立於2004年,是國內領先的“房地產+產業”複合型開發商和運營商。公司以地產為核心主業,智能產業化與建築工業化為兩翼,形成“一主兩翼”的戰略佈局。12月18日,公司以每股19.10港元(扣除税費後經價格約每股18.89港元)的價格配售股份4000萬股。此次配售預計認購所得總額約為7.64億港元,扣除税費後淨額約為7.56億港元。此次配股後,公司第一大股東持股比例從78.95%下滑至76.39%。我們認為,此次配售既為公司補充了運營資金,也提高了公司公眾股份的流動性。
聚焦核心城市圈中高端產品,高週轉帶來規模快增長,業績進入釋放期。公司聚焦核心城市圈中高端住宅市場,目標客户為首次置業的剛需型和改善型自住客户。承襲美的集團的製造業基因,公司從選址到銷售和交付階段有規範化的操作流程,可以持續支持快速開發、去化和回款的高週轉模式。2015年起,公司銷售增長駛入快車道,2015-2018年合約銷售額的複合年均增長率為92%。2019年銷售金額規模破千億元。高速銷售規模的增長為公司後續業績鎖定增長區間。截止2019H1,公司賬面預收賬款達745億元。
土地儲備充足,佈局優質。公司貨值主要集中在經濟增長前景良好、具有紮實產業基礎並且人口不斷流入的熱點城市羣。截止2019H1,公司共有249個物業開發項目,覆蓋全國15個省份、54個城市,其中一二線城市的土儲貨值佔64%,長三角、珠三角、長江中游、西南和華北區域的貨值分別佔30%、24%、19%、14%和13%,土儲總建面約5251萬平,對應貨值共5500億元。
智能產品和服務帶動溢價,裝配建築應用減費提效。公司是最早在住宅物業推行智能家居及智慧小區概念的物業發展商之一。2015年以來,公司先後成立美家智能科技有限公司、智慧生活研究院等,實現智慧家居從研發、設計、生產、銷售、施工、到售後和運維的全產業鏈打通。裝配式建築方面,美的置業團隊在裝配式建築方面有豐富經驗,在建築時間和成本方面有較強競爭優勢。我們認為,開源(產品具備溢價空間)節流(裝配式建築節約成本)的運營模式為公司帶來長期競爭優勢和利潤優勢。
投資建議:“優於大市”評級。我們預測公司2019年EPS為3.45元每股,給予公司2019年6-7倍PE估值,對應合理市值約為290-338億港元,對應合理價值區間約為23.54-27.46港元每股,PEG約為0.18-0.21。(本文非特別註明,均為人民幣計價,1港元=0.88元人民幣)
風險提示:1)土拍市場升温後,新增土地儲備單位成本上升,影響公司利潤率。2)項目結轉週期慢於預期導致結轉收入低於預測。

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