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國泰君安:上調海螺水泥(0914.HK)目標價至62.10港元 但下調評級至“收集”
格隆匯 01-03 16:33

國泰君安發佈研究報告稱,基於12月強勁的出貨量,該行預計海螺水泥(00914.HK)2019年自產水泥產品的銷量將同比增長8.5%以上。2019年第四季度華東提價略慢於2018年同期,且熟料價格的升幅亦較弱,部分原因是受到了進口熟料的衝擊。

海螺水泥將受益於對排放和礦山更嚴格的監管。安徽計劃對水泥生產製定更嚴格的排放標準,能夠達到新標準的水泥廠商將可免除秋冬季的限產。自2019年11月下旬以來,由於對採礦活動更加嚴格的監管,巢湖周邊的六條熟料生產線已被關停。該行預計其他地區也可能對礦山實施更嚴格的環保監管,特別是對風景區和市區附近的礦山。

國泰君安將2019/2020/2021年的每股盈利預測分別上調了2.8%/1.7%/0.5%,主要基於2019年第四季度高於預期的出貨量和潛在的市場份額提升上調了自產水泥產品的銷量假設。

上調目標價至62.10港元,但下調至“收集”。該行的DCF模型給出的公允價值為每股71.97港元。鑑於公司股價在12月大幅上漲,將投資評級下調至“收集”,最新的目標價對應8.7倍/8.8倍/8.8倍的2019-2021年市盈率和1.8倍的2020年市淨率。

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