纸产品与林产品造纸 | 供需持续改善，关注2020年提涨机遇
机构：海通证券
投资要点：
四季度造纸需求改善，提价落实顺利：造纸行业19年四季度各纸种价格均有所上涨，文化纸19年价格整体稳定提涨，文化纸在19年3-5月、以及9-11月旺季实现了价格的稳健提涨，全年累计涨价500-600元/吨；箱板瓦楞纸自19年11月以来市场表现良好，11月纸厂提价2-3轮，累计提价幅度50-150元/吨；白卡纸经过19上半年的冲高回落，在9-11月价格连续大幅上涨三个月，截至11月底，下半年白卡纸主流品牌累计落实上涨450-900元/吨。
供需改善推动纸价提涨，20年仍存提价机遇：四季度是造纸传统旺季，需求回暖叠加行业较少的新增产能以及较低的产业链库存，为涨价创造良好供需环境；20年我们认为造纸板块的景气度仍将维持较好水平，纸价进入旺季仍有提涨空间，淡季下跌幅度有限；文化纸20年上半年暂无大型项目投产，价格在3月份教材教辅招投标之际有望出现新一轮的推涨；箱板瓦楞纸方面，我们判断国废的供应紧张将有效支撑箱板瓦楞纸价格的提涨。
产能投放将产生分化，文化纸产能压力较小：通过梳理20-21年各纸种新增产能情况，我们认为文化纸产能压力较小，而白卡和箱板瓦楞纸预计投放产能相对较多；文化纸新增产能包括20年太阳45万吨、和博汇45万吨文化纸以及21年太阳55万吨文化纸释放，我们判断行业产能逐步释放能够被市场所消化；箱板瓦楞纸20年行业新增产能超1000万吨，虽然未来产能达产进度延期，仍有较大新增产能压力。
重点关注太阳纸业、山鹰纸业：（1）太阳纸业作为造纸行业管理能力最出色的企业，一方面受益于文化纸良好供需环境，另一方面公司逐步进入产能投产期，新增产能保障未来成长性；（2）自19年11月箱板瓦楞纸价格明显上涨，山鹰纸业原材料供应链完整、业绩弹性较大，20年公司华中造纸基地建设稳步推进，并逐步实现上下游垂直一体化布局，建议关注。
风险提示：原材料价格波动，行业新增产能较多。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
