《大行报告》中金料中海油(00883.HK)上调今明两年滚动目标 维持「跑赢行业」评级
中金发表报告指,中海油(00883.HK)将於1月13日召开年度战略指引发布会,届时公司将就新一年战略发展方向与经营目标给出指引。考虑到提前投产海内外新项目(包括圭亚那Liza油田於12月下旬提前投产)、以及今年中国近海油气生产受季风影响较小等因素,该行预计去年中海油油气产量有望达到4.93亿桶油当量,超过年初指引的上限4.9亿桶油当量。同时,该行预计中海油可能分别上调2020/21年的产量指引中位数3%/3%至5.25/5.56亿桶油当量,并引入2022年产量目标突破6亿桶油当量,但市场已有广泛预期。
中金又预计,中海油去年全年资本支出接近全年指引700至800亿元的上限,达790亿元,多年来首次完成资本支出预算计划,其中用於中国与海外的支出比例如期约为60:40。该行预计今年公司资本支出预算或落於850至950亿元区间,较该行预期的去年实际完成资本支出增长7.6%至20.2%,相信在中国政府油气增储上产的号召下,中海油资本支出的上升周期或将持续4至5年,有望於2021至2022年超过1,000亿元,并於2023年前後达到1,200亿元阶段性峰值。
该行维持对中海油股份的「跑赢行业」评级,目标价15.5元。
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