中金:升吉利(0175.HK)評級至“跑贏行業” 上調目標價至19.6港元
中金髮表報告表示,看好吉利汽車(00175.HK)銷量復甦、以及中長期通過模塊化平台架構的切換對整體產品力盈利能力的提升,上調吉利汽車評級至“跑贏行業”,調高目標價7.7%至19.6港元,此相當今明兩年市盈率各15.8倍及13.4倍。
該行指,內地車市回暖確定性增強,自主品牌市佔率觸底回升;目前來看,行業改善預期在加強。行業批發銷量已經逐步回暖,且該行預計去年12月轉正。而從結構來看,自主市佔率已於下半年觸底回升,去年11月已恢復至38.9%的水平,而跟之前47%的高位相比,仍有增長空間。一線自主長安、吉利等批發銷量均實現轉正,尾部品牌出清繼續兑現,「國六」全面實施進一步壓縮尾部品牌的產品供應,給一線自主帶來機會。
中金稱,吉利去年10月至11月銷量已持續轉正,去年12月銷量在低基數的作用下,預計將達到較高增速。公司即將推出的新車儲備豐富,有望持續更新公司新車週期。在車市向上復甦通道中,該行預計規模效應及吉利較強的議價能力能釋放較大的盈利彈性。
該行表示,由於銷量預測上調,以及調整對吉利下半年費用率預期,決定上調吉利2019年盈利預測3.4%至90.23億元人民幣,並看好2020年銷量復甦和新品週期改善對吉利帶來的盈利彈性,上調對其2020年盈利預測7.5%至102.6億元人民幣,引入對其2021年新預測120.3億元人民幣。

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