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高盛:美国经济未来数年不太可能陷衰退
阿思达克 01-02 09:42

高盛表示,未来数年美国不太可能出现经济下滑,更认为美国经济实际上是抗衰退的。

高盛经济师Jan Hatzius及David Mericle发表报告指,总体而言自上世纪八十年代开始的「大平稳」(Great Moderation)势头仍然在持续,目前的经济在结构上不易出现衰退,虽然可能会出现新的风险,如石油冲击、通胀过热及金融失衡,但不会成为经济衰退的主因,相信经济软着陆的情况较市场普遍预期的要好。

两人并未完全排除经济衰退的风险,但表示一些主要不利因素已经消散。报告指,美国已很大程度上能源独立,通胀压力不大。自金融危机爆发以来,由於私人部门债务占收入的比例急速下降,以及银行系统的监管更加严格,金融体系的杠杆作用有所减弱,不过股票价格上涨及公司债务激增仍然是威胁。

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