麥格理:內地貸款全改掛LPR將損內銀盈利能力 首選中信銀行(0998.HK)
麥格理髮表研究報告,人民銀行在過去週末進一步推動利率自由化,計劃在明年8月底前將內地貸款全改掛鈎LPR。該行相信這會損害內地銀行的盈利能力,並認為此監管措施已導致銀行股的表現跑輸大市,但仍符合該行的預期。相信消費信貸的表現會快速復甦,因此首選具信用卡專營權的中信銀行(00998.HK)。
該行續指,由於自明年1月起銀行將被禁止以基準利率貸款,因此認為這已對銀行今年下半年的淨息差帶來影響。轉換程序由明年1月1日開始,並要在明年8月底前完成。該行相信,大部分的影響將會在明年第二及第三季發生,銀行現時必須開始與客户商討如何將原定貸款的利率定價基準轉換成LPR。
除了按揭之外,銀行及借款人可以重新協商具體轉換條款,相信將加速企業貸款的利率下跌,因為企業貸款人現時具有更大的議價能力。而按揭貸款利率則將會接近原始定價,重新定價週期至少一年,意味相關貸款調整空間有限。

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