中銀香港(2388.HK):香港經濟增長的下行趨勢預計持續,下調至“收集“評級
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
2019年前三季度,公司提取減值準備前的淨經營溢利同比增長7.3%至326億港元。淨利息收入同比增加10.5%至32,175百萬港元,主要由淨息差擴張及平均生息資產增長帶動。淨手續費及佣金收入為8,443百萬港元,同比下降4.9%,主要由於去年的基數較高和投資氣氛轉弱。經營支出同比增加7.7%。
2020年,我們預計:1)全球經濟和中國經濟仍將面臨下行壓力,2)中美貿易摩擦仍將存在不確定性以及3)香港本地社會事件仍可能持續,從而預計使香港經濟仍將面臨下行趨勢。
2020年,香港經濟增長的下行趨勢預計將持續,預計會對公司的盈利能力產生負面影響。總體上,我們將公司的2019/2020/2021年股東淨利潤下調4.5%、12.2%和18.2%。我們預計公司的2019/2020/2021年每股盈利分別為3.000港元、3.028港元、3.102港元,分別同比下降0.9%、上升0.9%和2.4%。我們將公司的目標價從40.38港元下調到33.09港元,對應11.0倍2019年市盈率和10.9倍2020年市盈率,1.2倍2019年市淨率和1.1倍2020年市淨率。同時,我們將公司的投資評級從“買入”下調為“收集”。

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