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中國石油股份(0857.HK):以改革為契機,解鎖資源價值,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 12-30 11:28

機構:天風證券

評級:買入

“後進生”有望奮起追趕——從三桶油股價表現説起

2014年以來三桶油表現出差異性:中海油憑藉上游成本持續下降,ROE在2018~2019年已經接近2013-2014年油價高位時期。中石化則因煉化在2016年之後進入景氣週期,ROE也得到較好恢復。反觀中石油,作為利潤以上游業務為主的公司,成本控制不盡人意,導致ROE從16年低點恢復不明顯,股價表現也是三桶油中最弱的。

中石油落後現狀,將在2020年出現轉折。上游勘探開發降本、天然氣產業鏈增效、國企改革公司治理改善,三因素將構成公司基本面的長期拐點。

看點一:加大勘探開發,解鎖資源稟賦

在國家要求“加大自主開發七年行動計劃”下,公司隨着風險勘探的持續投入和新油氣資源的發現,頁巖氣加速上產,頁巖油也獲突破,公司儲量和儲採比有望增長。公司強調“效益增儲、效益建產”,新上表儲量有望拉動公司單位DDA成本和整體桶油成本下降。2019年上半年,公司油氣綜合成本約41美金/桶當量,同比下降約7美金/桶當量。

看點二:天然氣業務提價+產業鏈延伸

公司目前擁有最為龐大、相對完整的油氣儲運基礎設施資產。國家油氣管網公司已經成立,移交的資產作價,以及移交之後公司的經營策略轉變,是市場最為關注的問題。首先,我們估算公司的油氣儲運資產總價值應在4700-5000億之間,不論用何種作價方式,最終作價不可能低於1.0倍PB。其次,在經營策略方面,公司明確天然氣板塊的“效益”最大化原則。一是利用市場化契機,實現提價。二是產業鏈延伸,向高回報的下游領域滲透。

看點三:國企改革,內部挖潛空間大

中國石油煉化板塊和銷售板塊盈利水平顯著低於中國石化。差距的原因除了區域佈局、加工深度以外,人員負擔是最主要的劣勢。近年來,在國企瘦身健體、三供一業移交社會等國改推動下,中石油相比中石化的劣勢在逐漸收窄。另外,國企改革要求壓減法人數量,如果得到有力執行,公司的期間費用率、實際所得税率也有望下降。

盈利預測與估值:維持公司2019年業績預測478億,上調2020/2021年業績預測571/669億(原為508/515億),當前股價對應PE13/11/10倍,對應19年PB0.52倍。參照國際可比公司PB/ROE水平,公司合理PB估值區間0.75~0.80倍,對應目標價區間5.0~5.4元人民幣,漲幅空間34~54%。公司基本面迎來長週期拐點,且估值修復空間較大,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:國際油價大跌的風險;上游降本不及預期的風險;天然氣市場化改革推進較慢的風險;國企改革執行力度不夠的風險。

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