花旗：內地推户藉改革鞏固內房需求 首選融創(1918.HK)等六股
就近日中共中央辦公廳、國務院辦公廳印發了《關於促進勞動力和人才社會性流動體制機制改革的意見》，併發出通知，要求各地區各部門結合實際認真貫徹落實，《意見》明確提出全面取消城區常住人口300萬以下的城市落户限制，全面放寬城區常住人口300萬至500萬的大城市落户條件。花旗發表報告表示，相信相關政策可鼓勵農民工入藉相關符合條件的內地城市，鼓勵區域流動性及城市化。
該行指，上述內地户藉放鬆，可進一步鞏固內房市場的需求，據內地人口數據，僅14個大型及超大型城市人口逾500萬(佔全國物業銷售29%)，13個一型城市(type-I)人口介乎300萬至500萬城市(佔全國物業銷售15%)，相信相關改革不會明顯創造巨大需求，但有助鞏固全國每年總建築樓面面積約10億至11億平方米的基本需求。
花旗估計，二線、強三線城市在城市化中最為受惠，而非偏遠城市，並相信內地未來8至10個大都會城化(metropolitan)會主導全國城市化，偏遠城市(人口少於300萬)的户藉改革不會改變人口流入主要城市趨勢，料二線、強三線城市(如貴陽、福州、南昌及石家莊)將可最受益「新人口」。
該行表示，內房股中坐擁較多一型(type-I)及二型(type-II)城市土地樓面發展商的包括中國海外宏洋(00081.HK) (佔總樓面面積79%)、中駿置業(01966.HK)(佔總樓面面積61%)、龍光地產(03380.HK)(佔總樓面面積54%)、中國海外(00688.HK)(佔總樓面面積52%)、美的置業(03990.HK)(佔總樓面面積50%)及寶龍地產(01238.HK)(佔總樓面面積50%)。
基於內地推進户藉改革，花旗相信具質素及具良好地域佈局的內房股可望受惠，行業首選融創中國(01918.HK)、世房(00813.HK)、旭輝控股(00884.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、時代中國(01233.HK)。而該行亦指，美的置業、合景泰富(01813.HK)、中駿置業、龍光地產及寶龍地產屬「具價值但走勢落後」股份。
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