保利物業(06049.HK)：當風輕借力，一舉入高空，給予“買入”評級，目標價49.49港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：49.49港元
核心觀點
廿三載央企龍頭上市展雄風，穩健經營資深管理團隊謀發展。公司1996年成立於廣州，2017年曾於新三板掛牌上市並在2019年摘牌。此次H股發行上市後控股股東為保利地產，持股比例為75%。管理層經驗豐富，兩任前董事長仍在董事會任職，副總經理行業經驗均超過20年。營收業績高速增長，2018年營收、業績分別同比增長31%、47%，利潤率亦實現逐年提升，2018年已上升至7.9%。經營風格穩健，2018年扣除合約負債後負債率為45%，應收款週轉天數逐年下降。
行業絕對龍頭，項目儲備充足且結構日趨優化。行業絕對龍頭，截止至2019年6月在管面積突破2.6億平，合同管理面積4.5億平，分別排名上市物業公司第二、三位。2018年起，公共物業面積大幅跳升，目前已達1.3億平，佔在管面積比超過50%。同時外拓項目佔比大幅提升，外拓項目在管面積佔比56.9%，管理面積增長不再單純依靠母公司交付。此外公司增值服務發展迅猛，營收佔比超過30%；毛利潤佔比超過50%，營收利潤結構日趨優化。
競爭優勢：內生交付有保障，外拓擴張看非居。背靠大股東，保利地產行業地位穩固，未來竣工交付量大質優有保障。公司央企屬性優勢，非住宅業態空間廣闊。以“全域化公共服務管理”模式切入小鎮的公共服務領域，這一模式直接帶動外拓非住宅業態面積的大幅增長。我們預測公司2019-2022年的在管面積將達到2.9/3.9/5.0/6.2億平，2020年在管面積較2018年即可實現翻番。此外公司上市後大概率會迎來利潤率的提升，公司即將迎來盈利規模和質量雙升的發展階段。
財務預測與投資建議
首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價49.49港元。我們預測公司2019-2021年EPS分別為0.92/1.31/1.78元，可比公司2020年的平均估值為28X。鑑於公司在公共業態上的差異化能力及高於可比公司的平均增速，我們給予公司20%的估值溢價，對應2020年PE估值為34X，對應目標價49.49港元。
風險提示
社保改革影響企業盈利。利潤率提升低於預期。
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