石藥集團 ( 109.HK ) ：積極進行創新轉型，有望步入收穫期，給予“增持”評級，目標價27.28港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：27.28港元
本報告導讀：
傳統制藥龍頭積極拓展新型製劑等創新業務，隨着重要創新產品未來陸續上市，有望持續保持穩健增長。首次覆蓋，給予增持評級。
摘要：
首次覆蓋，給予公司增持評級。石藥集團作為國內領先的綜合型製藥企業，業務範圍覆蓋創新藥、仿製藥、原料藥，在抗腫瘤、精神神經、心腦血管、抗感染、消化代謝等幾大領域均有廣泛的產品佈局，現有創新產品支撐業績穩步增長，多個在研重磅新藥有望逐漸貢獻業績增量。預測2019-2021年公司歸母淨利潤為44.46、54.89、68.01億港元，對應EPS為0.71、0.88、1.09港元，綜合考慮絕對估值和相對估值，給予目標價27.28港元，對應2020年PE31X。首次覆蓋，給予公司增持評級。
?核心創新品種快速增長，普藥業務多點開花。學術推廣及渠道下沉助力公司第一大品種恩必普持續放量，多美素、津優力、克艾力不斷增加醫院覆蓋率，腫瘤藥事業部銷售人數大幅增加，護航核心品種未來增長，玄寧已成功在美國上市，作為首個FDA完全批准的中國本土創新藥，有望提振海內外銷售。創新藥業務仍處於快速增長階段，是公司增長引擎。普藥業務國內外申報持續發力，在研產品眾多，上市品種不斷豐富。公司重新梳理普藥銷售體系，增加自營恢復終端控制力，氯吡格雷成功中標擴面採購，業務增速有望提升，充沛現金流。
研發體系搭建完成，多個在研重磅創新藥有望陸續貢獻業績增量。公司通過“引進+自研”方式快速構建新產品儲備，擁有超過1800人的研發團隊，深化外部合作，建立多個技術平台。研發投入力度持續加大，2019年前三季度研發投入已達15億元，快速推進研發佈局。公司在大分子、小分子、新型製劑領域在研管線豐富，擁有多項臨牀三期及二期項目，2020-2021年有望迎來Duvelisib、SCT400、JMT103、兩性黴素B膽固醇硫酸酯複合物、米託蒽醌脂質體等多款10億級別銷售規模“引進+自研”新藥上市，主要治療領域包括抗腫瘤、抗真菌感染、動脈閉塞症等，有望陸續貢獻增量，助力公司長期發展。
催化劑：重要產品獲批上市銷售，核心產品銷售放量超預期，在研創新藥臨牀數據超預期。
風險提示：產品研發不及預期，行業政策風險。
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