國泰君安:進入需求側放鬆大週期 推薦"增持"龍光地產(03380.HK)
國泰君安最新研究報告指出,12月25日出台的《關於促進勞動力和人才社會性流動體制機制改革的意見》相比4月份發佈的 2019 年城鎮化規劃,在人口引入方面基本一致,在內容上大幅度增加關於人才激勵和人才保障相關內容。整體來看,均是要進一步引導勞動力和人才向大中型城市流動。
該機構認為,當前進入到需求側放鬆的歷史大週期。在 2010 年拉開的需求側調控大幕,在接下來將逐步被供給側調控替代,進入到需求側寬鬆的歷史大週期當中。房住不炒的核心是去金融化,以金融收縮作為房企調控的主要手段將長期存在。同時,需求側將逐步寬鬆,以達到平穩過渡的目的。
國泰君安指出,儘管部分城市在因城施策的背景下存在先後順序,但大方向一定是以放寬有效需求的方式,逐步過渡到企業縮表、居民穩槓桿的市場,户籍准入、限購限售等政策都將逐步退出。在這一過程中,逐步完成房企供給側改革,改善競爭格局,模式恰當的企業將受益於競爭格局改善並獲估值提升。該機構指出,基於可持續的基本面,繼續推薦龍光地產(03380.HK)等區域龍頭房企,給予"增持"評級。
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