电力行业动态跟踪报告：风升火起，沿海需求稳定，维持“强于大市”评级
机构：平安证券
评级：强于大市
投资要点
2019年1-11月全国电力工业生产简况：11月份，全国全社会用电量5912亿千瓦时，同比增长4.7%，增速比上年同期回落1.6个百分点；全国规模以上电厂发电量5890亿千瓦时，同比增长4.0%，比上年同期提高0.4个百分点。1-11月份，全国全社会用电量6.51万亿千瓦时，同比增长4.5%，比上年同期回落4.0个百分点；全国规上电厂发电量6.48万亿千瓦时，同比增长3.4%，比上年同期回落3.5个百分点；全国发电设备累计平均利用小时3469小时，比上年同期减少50小时。截至11月底，全国规上电厂发电设备容量18.74亿千瓦，同比增长5.6%，比上年同期提高0.4个百分点；1-11月份，全国发电新增装机容量7606万千瓦，比上年同期少投产2271万千瓦。
用电量：三产持续旺盛，沿海需求稳定。11月份，一产用电量60亿千瓦时，同比增长3.8%，比上年同期回落7.8个百分点；二产4256亿千瓦时，增长3.6%，回落2.4个百分点；三产900亿千瓦时，增长10.7%，提高1.5个百分点；居民生活用电696亿千瓦时，增长4.1%，回落0.5个百分点。1-11月份，一产用电708亿千瓦时，同比增长5.1%，回落4.9个百分点；二产4.41万亿千瓦时，增长3.0%，回落4.1个百分点；三产1.08万亿千瓦时，增长9.4%，回落3.4个百分点；居民生活9468亿千瓦时，增长5.7%，回落4.8个百分点。沿海地区中，广西用电增速在全国独占鳌头，广东连续6个月超过全国均值，江、浙增速也超过平均水平，上海接近于均值；仅有福建、海南增速弱于平均水平。
发电量：风电亮眼，火电恢复。11月份，全国规模以上水电发电量820亿千瓦时，同比下降6.4%，比上年同期回落7.9个百分点；火电4325亿千瓦时，增长4.4%，提高0.5个百分点；核电325亿千瓦时，增长14.9%，回落9.8个百分点；风电388亿千瓦时，增长27.2%，提高36.7个百分点。1-11月，全国规上水电发电1.08万亿千瓦时，同比增长5.4%，比上年同期提高1.0个百分点；火电4.65万亿千瓦时，增长1.6%，回落4.6个百分点；核电3151亿千瓦时，增长18.8%，提高2.0个百分点；风电3638亿千瓦时，增长11.3%，回落4.4个百分点。地区用电需求回暖与送电端西南水电出力下降的影响仍在持续，受电大省粤、苏、浙、沪的本地机组出力稳步提升。
利用小时：风升火起。11月份，水电利用小时同比减少20小时；火电增加11小时；核电减少37小时；风电增加27小时；光伏持平。?装机容量：火电为增量主力。截至11月底，全国规上水、火、核、风、光的发电装机容量同比分别减少375万千瓦、增加401万千瓦、减少188万千瓦、减少74万千瓦、减少2026万千瓦。
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