雅生活服務(03319.HK):公共服務具備優勢,估值修復有望持續,維持“買入”評級,目標價40.13 港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:40.13 港元
核心觀點:
並表中民物業後,公司將在公共服務業務形成優勢,業務將逐步多元化。公司預計2020Q1並表中民物業,中民物業在管面積中約50%為公共服務類、32%為住宅、18%為商業和辦公。中民物業旗下多個子公司歷史上為國企背景,他們現階段的企業性質多為國企改制。在公共服務業務上,國企改制子公司及品牌和原管理層將極大提升公司獲取新項目的能力。公司有望在中民物業並表後實現業務多元化。
公司有望實現估值重估。由於中民物業收入體量較大,雅生活服務現在佔收入比例和毛利比例較高的營銷業務未來的收入和毛利佔比將會迅速下降。我們認為此業務為公司帶來的估值折價將會迅速縮窄。結合公司將增長重心由收購逐步轉向內生增長的戰略轉向以及公司有望於2020年加入港股通的預期,我們認為公司將於2020年實現估值體系的重構。公司歷史上部分併購業務具備業績承諾以及相對應補償安排,公司歷史上會以公告形式披露其業績完成情況,我們認為市場對其業績波動的擔心將會持續減弱。當前公司交易在2020年20倍PE水平,和可比同行的差距有望持續修復。
預計2019-2021年業績分別為0.87元/股、1.21元/股和1.52元/股。我們維持對公司2019-2021年EPS分別為0.87、1.21和1.52元每股的盈利預測,對應2019-2021年複合增長33%。我們認為市場對營銷業務和併購業務的折價將會進一步減弱,公司整體的估值水平將會修復到和其增長匹配的水平,我們上調合理估值水平至2020年30倍,對應每股合理價值為40.13HKD,維持買入評級。
風險提示。併購業務並表不及預期;未預期的自然或人為災害。(首頁及正文全文如無特殊説明,貨幣單位為人民幣)

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