藥明生物(2269.HK)：賦能全球生物藥研發的CRO／CDMO龍頭，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價116.16 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：116.16 港元
核心觀點： *如非特殊説明，本報告貨幣為人民幣
生物製劑增速快、藥企轉型迫切，生物製劑研發服務市場隨之高成長。 隨着生物製劑市場的增長、產品和技術的更新換代，大型製藥公司和中 小型 Biotech 與生物製劑研發服務供應商合作更加密切頻繁。驅動因 素包括：1）藥企創新轉型迫切，研發支出增加；2）CRO 帶來的成本 和時間的節省以及良好的供應鏈和產能管理；3）CRO 公司專業的高 端技術。預計未來 3-5 年生物製劑研發服務行業高景氣度有望持續。
全球唯一提供全方位生物製劑研發服務的企業。藥明生物業務包括臨 牀前至商業化生產，管線涵蓋各類生物藥。截至 2019 年中期，公司綜 合項目數 224 個，其中單抗項目 132 個，融合蛋白項目 35 個，抗體 偶聯藥物 25 個，雙特異性抗體 19 個，全球新（First-in-Class）項目 58 個，佔比 26%。抗體偶聯藥物和雙特異性抗體項目增長快，符合生 物藥行業發展方向和創新趨勢，彰顯全球領先的技術平台實力。
核心競爭優勢凸顯，於全球市場的份額有望持續提升。藥明生物擁有 WuXiBodyTM 雙抗平台、WuXia 細胞系平台、WuXiUP 連續生產平台 等獨家核心技術平台，具備高質量、高靈活度、高成功率、高表達量、 低成本等特點。同時對客户需求響應快、滿足度高，不斷縮短交付時 間，提高競爭力，依託中國工程師紅利，人才團隊迅速擴張，使得歐美 的生物製劑研發服務向其轉移，未來於全球的份額有望持續提升。此 外，藥明生物具備較強的新業務孵化能力和新技術開發能力，疫苗業務 有望成為新增長點，未來更多業務的開拓和長期持續高成長可期。
盈利預測與投資建議：預計 2019-2021 年收入增速 49%/43%/42%， 歸母淨利潤增速 52%/46%/43%，EPS 為 0.74/1.09/1.55 元/股，當前 股價對應 PE 為 119/81/57x。採用 DCF 方法得到公司合理價值為 116.16 港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：研發進度不達預期；新增項目數量低於預期；行業政策風險
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