中国生物制药(1177.HK)：创新药将持续推出，业绩增长无忧，首次覆盖给予买入评级,目标价 13.39 港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：13.39 港元
投资要点
➢ 第三轮带量采购对公司无负面冲击，反而有利于提升销量：
公司有醋酸阿比特龙片、二甲双胍缓释片等 6 个品种进入第三轮带量采购，这些 产品占公司的收入比例不到 3%，4 个是今年上市的新品种，市场份额低，可以借 助带量采购提升销量，这与第一轮带量采购对恩替卡韦的冲击有较大的区别。带 量采购大幅降价及国家医保目录谈判降价 60%等，对仿制药行业产生极大的压 力，公司创新产品丰富，重磅品种有望推动业绩持续增长。
➢ 肿瘤重磅创新药将持续推出：
创新药安罗替尼 2018 年推出即有销售额约 12 亿元，2019 年上半年销售额超 13 亿元，软组织肉瘤、晚期非小细胞肺癌外，今年 9 月再次获批新的适应症—小细 胞肺癌，目前在进行甲状腺癌的临床试验。安罗替尼的峰值可达 90 亿元。PD-1 有望于 2020 年获批上市，PD-L1 有望 2021 年上市。PD-1 抗体+化疗、PD-L1 抗 体+化疗的适应症已经进入临床Ⅲ阶段。公司亦开展了 PD-1 抗体+安罗替尼、PDL1 抗体+安罗替尼的临床试验，多项进入临床Ⅰ期或Ⅱ期。曲妥珠单抗、利妥昔 单抗、贝伐珠单抗 2021 年上市。
➢ 新药研发厚积薄发：
2016/2017/2018 年研发支出分别为 14.3/15.95/20.91 亿元，2019 年上半年达 16.26 亿元，公司研发投入的增加将迎来新药品的密集收获期。重磅呼吸科布地奈德即 将上市。2020/2021 年将有 18/24 个品种上市，峰值销售 10 亿以上的总共有 10 个。2020 年上市的仑伐替尼的峰值超 30 亿。
➢ 首次覆盖给予买入评级,目标价 13.39 港元：
我们预计公司 2019-2021 年 EPS 分别为 0.26、0.30、0.36，基于公司研发积累深 厚，后续有多个重磅产品，我们给予公司 2020 年 39 倍目标 PE，对应目标价为 13.39 港元，较现价有 26.1%的上涨空间，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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