小米集團-W(1810.HK):堅守性價比策略,看好5G時代的表現,上調至“買入”評級,目標價14.0 港元
機構:興業證券
評級:買入
目標價:14.0 港元
投資要點
小米 Redmi 將 5G 手機帶入 1999 元價位,看好其市場表現。2019 年 12 月 10 日,小米旗下的 Redmi 品牌召開發佈會,發佈了 K30 5G 手機等產 品。Redmi K30 5G 起售價為 1999 元(6GB+64GB),明年 1 月份起售。 儘管售價比競品低約千元,Redmi K30 5G 版仍在顯示、攝像等配置上不 輸競品,展現出極高的性價比。憑藉高效的渠道和互聯網為主的變現模式, 公司可以在維持高性價比的同時保持盈利性。
小米擁有在意性價比的用户基本盤,國內市場份額“向下有底”,海外份 額增長中。根據市場調研數據,小米手機的國內用户羣並非收入水平低, 但屬於在消費電子產品上更理性的羣體(偏男性、偏年輕、偏高學歷、偏 高收入),小米品牌擁有在意性價比的用户基本盤,市場份額“向下有底”。 同時,小米手機在印度保持領先的份額,在西歐市場出貨量高增長中 (3Q19,yoy+91%)。
紅米品牌堅守住性價比,小米品牌高端化、多元化還有可能。紅米品牌獨 立之後,在盧偉冰的帶領下,憑藉堅守性價比的策略,在低價位手機中表 現優異。但現階段,小米品牌的高端化以及收購後的美圖品牌還有待發力, 我們期待公司在 2020 年在品牌高端化和多元化取得更明顯的進展。
IoT:核心產品+生態鏈產品佈局清晰,份額提升+品類擴充驅動增長。電 視/手錶/路由/音箱+空/冰/洗為核心產品,其他產品依靠生態鏈企業的佈局 清晰。生態鏈模式利於品類快速擴產,帶來營收增長。電視業務的成功有 望複製到白電領域,份額提升驅動增長。
投資建議:上調目標價至 14.0 港元,上調至“買入”評級。我們預計公 司 2019/20/21 年收入 2059/2650/3238 億人民幣,調整後歸母淨利潤 116/137/158 億人民幣。我們上調目標價 16.7%至 14.0 港元(估值基於未 來 12 個月利潤的 20 倍 PE+投資賬面價值 1 倍 PB),目標價對應於 2019/20/21 年調整後歸母淨利潤 PE 倍數為 26.0/22.1/19.2 倍。
風險提示:國內手機競爭趨於激烈;空/冰/洗能否成功有待觀察;性價比策略 硬件利潤空間較低

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