國泰君安:料內地明年汽車銷量將持平 維持行業“中性”評級
國泰君安發表行業報告指,與中國經濟增長相一致,汽車行業也正在進入下一階段——成熟期。隨着行業整合加快,維持增長將變得更加困難。參照日本在本地和海外市場取得成功的發展歷史,在中國市場放緩的情況下,中國製造商將需要在國際上尋找投資機會以保持增長。另一方面,發展二手車市場也是有助於汽車銷售增長的重要領域。
報告預計2020年銷量將持平。汽車需求仍然疲弱,這種情況應延續到2020年1季度。2020年的銷售應恢復到長期趨勢,因為2019年受到政策轉變的影響,如提前實施了國六排放標準。從長遠來看,基於當前的經濟環境,中國的汽車銷量應該會進入穩定的低增長趨勢,類似於日本在1980年至1990年的情況。
報告維持行業“中性”評級。自2019年8月以來,汽車製造商表現跑贏大市。估值也跟隨反彈。報告認為目前的估值沒有吸引力。優異表現可能不會持續,因為2020年的基本面仍然面臨挑戰。受益於消費升級和行業整合趨勢,上調北京汽車(1958.HK)、華晨汽車(1114.HK)和吉利汽車(0175.HK)的投資評級。零部件方面,推薦耐世特(1316.HK)和浦林成山(1809.HK)。
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