中國軟件國際（0354.HK）：華為鯤鵬加快雲智能業務放量，IT服務龍頭再次崛起
作者：光大海外研究 TMT（信息科技）：付天姿/吳柳燕
【文章摘要】
◆攜手華為打造AI創新中心，為華為鯤鵬產業推進奠定基礎
我們於2019年12月17日參加中軟國際-華為雲創新中心活動，公司進入首批華為鯤鵬凌雲夥伴計劃，基於各自優勢資源及能力，整合國內現有芯片、軟件、終端等產業資源，建設數字經濟產業高地。公司憑藉優質IT服務及豐富行業應用優勢，攜手華為共同組建團隊打造AI創新中心，激活鯤鵬產業生態，也為公司與華為鯤鵬產業的進一步有機融合奠定基礎。
◆IT服務龍頭攜手華為鯤鵬，加快雲智能業務放量
華為鯤鵬生態發展尚在初級階段，需要大量IT工程師開展平台、中間件、工具集、行業應用等適配工作。中軟國際作為國內最大的IT服務企業以及華為雲同舟共濟型合作伙伴，對標國際巨頭埃森哲，公司沉澱的產品方案能力開始兑現，受益於華為鯤鵬雲在全國各省市的逐步推進，其雲智能業務有望加快放量，我們預計2021年雲智能業務在整體收入佔比有望擴大至25%以上。
◆華為業務企穩疊加其他客户放量，驅動傳統外包業務恢復穩健增長
受外部環境擾動影響，華為大客户外包業務利潤及收入表現先後出現短期波動；伴隨調整期結束，華為外包業務有望於4Q19企穩，20年恢復健康增長。同時公司在平安、BAT、微軟等客户供應鏈份額有望繼續提升，疊加AIA、渣打、GE等種子客户培育放量，公司傳統外包業務有望恢復雙位數增長。
◆估值與評級
鑑於公司華為外包業務逐步企穩、雲智能業務加速放量，分別上調19-21年淨利潤預測1%/9%/12%至7.6/9.1/11.7億元人民幣，同比增速分別為5.8%/20.6%/28.3%，對應18-21E CAGR約18%。傳統外包業務恢復較快增長、疊加雲智能業務放量，公司整體業績有望於20年重回快速增長軌道；受益華為鯤鵬生態推進，公司雲智能業務高速成長性、確定性更有保障，參考公司傳統外包業務主導時期的歷史PE估值區間9-16倍，後續平台化、雲端轉型順利兑現有助公司估值提升，給予20年1.0倍PEG（18倍PE），上調目標價至7.1港幣，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：IT服務行業競爭加劇；雲業務及JF平台發展不及預期。
【附錄】
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