大和:內房板塊未來充滿挑戰 推薦龍湖及世茂
大和發佈報告稱,根據國家統計局統計,累計11個月新房銷售量及價值同比分別升1.6%及10.7%,該行所追蹤的發展商出現同比平均上升23%的合同銷售增長,以及達到93%的全年銷售目標,當中已有少量公司已完全達成目標,如龍湖集團(00960.HK)及世茂房地產(00813.HK)。
該行預計,內房股板塊未來將面臨充滿挑戰的運營環境,主要因為過去幾個星期內房股持續上漲,上月平均升幅達11%。因此,該行偏好具有穩定銷售和盈利能力,在土地收購方面保持謹慎,以及在公開拍賣中擁有多種土地收購渠道的公司。另外,內地一二三線城市的新房價格同比分別上升4.7%、8.7%及7.7%,該行認為,政府政策對房價產生了進一步的影響,預計未來幾個月價格漲幅將再收窄。
該行表示,11月及今年累計全國房地產數據好壞參半,新房銷售出現彈性增長,但新房建設、房地產投資及新房價格開始放緩,故對內房板塊維持“中性”評級,推薦龍湖集團、世茂房地產、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、及越秀地產(00123.HK)。
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