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郭家耀: 港股短线或有技术回吐 内地影子银行规模收缩
阿思达克 12-16 10:10

正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股上周五(13日)走势向好,三大指数再度破顶,但其後升幅收窄。投资者观望中美首阶段协议细节,三大指数录得温和升幅收市。美元温和向好,美国十年期债息回落至1.81厘水平,油价及金价走势向上。港股预托证券普遍向下,预料大市早段跟随低开。内地股市表现向上,中美贸易协议首阶段协议落实,中央经济工作会议结束,继续支持经济发展政策,均利好大市气氛。沪综指收市上升1.8%,沪深两市成交额增加至5,656亿元人民币。

受外围消息刺激,港股大幅造好,恒指突破250天线水平,成交亦大幅增加。由於短线大市升幅已多,短线或有技术回吐,但预料回调空间亦不大。投资者继续关注外围消息发展,以及内地政策消息,指数可继续於27,000至28,000点水平上落。

另评级机构穆迪表示,中国影子银行资产的收缩规模从今年上半年的1.7万亿元人民币(下同),大幅放缓至第三季的4,000亿元。预期总体经济的杠杆可能进一步上升,因货币政策仍然集中於支持经济增长。穆迪报告指出,今年首三季广义影子银行资产规模减少2.1万亿元,至59.2万亿元,相当於9月底名义GDP的62%,较去年底的68%有所回落。於2016年底,影子银行资产规模相当於名义GDP比例达到87%。

第三季中国的信贷增速超过名义GDP增长,导致总体经济的杠杆率略为上升。杠杆率将可能进一步上升,因货币政策仍然集中於支持经济增长。信托净贷款则转为负值,第三季信托贷款净额下跌2,630亿元,扭转上半年累计增加930亿元的趋势。第三季地方政府融资平台信贷则稳定,反映由政府融资平台信贷牵头的基建项目继续获得支持。影子银行规模已大幅收缩,对宏观经济的威胁减低,有助维持金融体系的稳定性。

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