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滔搏 (6110.HK ) 公司研究報告:聯盟頂級運動品牌,榮耀王者滔搏體育,給予“優於大市”評級
格隆匯 12-13 17:23

機構:海通證券

評級:優於大市

投資要點:

2014-2018年耐克、阿迪達斯中國收入CAGR分別為19.3%、25.9%。我們認為緊抓中國市場為兩大國際運動品牌帶來近年的飛躍成長。2008-2018年間,耐克整體收入CAGR僅為8.3%,而大中華區耐克品牌的收入CAGR達13.5%;同期,阿迪達斯整體收入CAGR為7.3%,大中華區的收入CAGR達15.5%。並且2014-2018這過去五年中,中國市場還出現了加速增長的現象,大中華區耐克品牌收入CAGR為19.3%,阿迪達斯大中華區收入CAGR達25.9%。

中國的經濟水平決定了運動市場特點:剛起步、空間大。我國的人均GDP在2011年邁過5000美元的門檻,2018年達到9771美元。當前經濟水平下,日常、多樣、持續的體育運動能覆蓋廣泛的人羣。根據199IT網站援引國家體育總局數據,2015年我國的運動參與率為34%,較美國的63%和日本的50%仍有提升空間。國務院目標2020、2030年經常參加鍛鍊的人口數分別達4.35、5.30億人,我們預計積極運動的人口還將不斷增加。

運動代理行業,雄踞寡頭地位。我們認為國外品牌由於對國內市場瞭解甚少,探索成本高,需藉助優質的本土企業拓展店鋪。國內代理商在渠道運營、零售管理、客户理解上均具備優勢。長期的運營積累了物流、信息系統等方面的基礎,在新型零售環境下對提升運營效率起到極大作用。行業中寡頭已出現,我們估計滔搏和寶勝合計佔中國運動服飾零售市場份額達約30%,剩餘分散在區域代理商中,他們利用地緣優勢獲得部分市場份額,但均佔比小且難以挑戰寡頭的地位。

數字化、智能化孕育新零售之花。滔搏是鞋類零售龍頭百麗國際旗下子公司,FY2015-2019年收入CAGR為18.6%,FY2019年銷售326億元(+22.7%),期末門店10223家,直營佔比82%,直營中77%為耐克、阿迪達斯店(6383家)。滔搏沿襲了百麗的運營能力,並開發了數字化工具包,在超6000家門店應用。2018年在智能化方向突破,加大與新零售領域的結合,提升門店銷售水平。

社區化、年輕化培育消費者聯結。我們認為新消費環境為運動代理品牌創造了強化自身品牌影響力的機會。滔搏從多方面加強粉絲聯接:①開發自有“門店小程序”;②高效運營10萬+閲讀量公眾號Topsports;③打造戰略店、主題店,成功運營高級別的耐克Beacon店、阿迪達斯SWC門店;④成立“滔搏電子競技俱樂部”,在聯賽中獲得優異成績,擴大在年輕消費者中的影響力。

盈利預測與估值。我們預測公司2020-2022財年收入分別為384.81/462.79/566.39億元,同比各增18.2%/20.3%/22.4%,歸母淨利潤為27.13/33.72/42.24億元,同比各增23.3%/24.3%/25.2%,對應EPS為0.44/0.54/0.68元/股,給予FY2020年22-26倍PE,對應合理價值區間為9.62-11.37元/股,按照1港元=0.90元人民幣折算,對應合理價值區間為10.70-12.65港元/股(2020財年PS為1.6-1.8倍),給予“優於大市”評級。

風險提示。消費者喜好改變,零售環境惡化,行業競爭加劇,品牌合作關係變化。

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