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中國再保險(1508.HK)首次覆蓋報告:國際領先的再保險業務解決方案提供商
格隆匯 12-13 14:11

來源:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:1.86港元

摘要

給予目標價1.86港元每股,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級:中國再保險全面推進“以再保險業務為核心,國際化業務為突破抓手”的戰略。公司不同業務板塊有望出現ROE邊際改善,將協同拉動總體ROE穩步攀升,提升公司整體估值。預測中國再保險2019-2021歸母淨利潤為61.22億元,71.41億元和83.66億元,通過可比估值法和ROE/PB估值法,給予目標價1.86港元每股,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。

再保險業務為核心,國際化業務為突破抓手:公司目前專注“一核心、三突破、五跨越”戰略,聚焦核心再保險業務,以國際化為突破重點。我們預計隨着公司全球國際化戰略佈局的推進,境外業務佔比將持續提升,有望提升再保險盈利能力,且全球佈局提高風險分散程度,將降低公司盈利的波動性。

各板塊ROE有望邊際改善,推動整體估值提升:隨着國際化戰略的推進,中再產險的國際業務佔比逐步提升,這將降低單一市場的風險集中,進一步提升中再產險的承保盈利能力,從而提高中再產險的整體ROE水平;穩健增長的保障型產品佔比提升,將優化中再壽險的業務結構,給中再壽險的ROE水平提升帶來機會。隨着戰略投資者一次性補充資本的利用效率提高和車險綜合成本率的顯著改善,大地財險的ROE有望回升至歷史中樞水平。不同業務板塊將協同拉動總體ROE提升。

催化劑:公司ROE指標出現顯著改善

風險提示:利率下行;境內發生巨災風險

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